Last month, former US president Jimmy Carter reached the 100-year milestone. He briefly raised a spirit of celebration at a time when the world appeared to be otherwise clouded in doom and gloom.
But even this apparent good news can be met with caution and concern.
“Can we cope with our ageing population?”, is a common riposte. This short question carries no short answer. And I accept this little column cannot do such a big question justice. But let me at least present some reasons for optimism.
First, I have faith in our ability to achieve great things. As a case in point, we shouldn’t walk past the incredible growth we have witnessed in our population of centenarians. This did not happen by accident.
In the same week Carter celebrated his 100th birthday, the Office for National Statistics also published its annual study of “the very old”.
By 2050, there could be more than 50,000 centenarians in England and Wales
Today, there are reported to be 14,850 centenarians in England and Wales. This number has more than doubled in the past 20 years. And it has risen remarkably since 1917, when King George V began the tradition of sending telegrams to people achieving this grand age.
Back then, it is reported the King sent only 24 congratulatory messages. Few could have envisaged the transformation in life expectancy the next century would bring. By 2050, there could be more than 50,000.
It is true this pace of growth can be a source of concern when viewed through a lens of fiscal affordability. But I’d also encourage us to view it through a lens of wonder. It is amazing so many people are reaching this milestone.
I also take confidence from the truism that the first step to recovery is admitting we have a problem. We excel at articulating the “problems” of an ageing population. Our acres of analysis tells us our first step has been taken, with bells on!
With one-in-four of us projected to be aged 65 or over by the 2070s, it is going to be hard for us to avoid an increase in age-related spending
Beyond that first step, let’s also recognise the other steps we continue to take.
Saving more and working longer are the two big steps we, as individuals, can take to prepare for our longer later lives. And I’d suggest that we are walking in the right direction.
Let’s recognise that we have more people saving for their retirement than ever before. What was once a minority sport is now one of majority participation. And let’s also recognise that we have more people working into later life than ever before. Not all, as some might suggest, “working until they drop”, but many seeking to contribute at a time when age must increasingly be seen as no barrier to opportunity.
We also have the sketchings of the map that will guide our future steps. There is an agreed need to push the adequacy of our savings, via an expansion of auto-enrolment; there is a shared belief that more help must be offered, via a narrowing of the advice gap; and there is an acceptance that all of us must continue to work hard to support good outcomes for customers. We know where we want to get to. Let’s keep walking. Quicker if possible.
In our report, Planning for retirement in the 2050s, we set out seven actions to support the defined contribution market. These included transforming customer support, ensuring the adequacy of savings and driving investment performance. Encouragingly, all are now live topics of debate.
The route to conquering our demographic mountain will not be determined by our finances alone. Our health will also determine the steepness of our climb
I recognise that this will be a tough hike, but a recent report from the Office for Budget Responsibility put a little spring in my step.
Its recent fiscal risks and sustainability report examined the potential outlook for our economy under various scenarios. The report acknowledged the pressures our ageing population will bring to our public finances. With one-in-four of us projected to be aged 65 or over by the 2070s, it is going to be hard for us to avoid an increase in age-related spending. But, the scale of this increase will be heavily influenced by the health of our population.
It is true that a healthier, longer-living population will require more spending on pensions. But this spending could be more than offset if we can save money on healthcare and if we can boost our productivity, thereby boosting our tax revenue.
The route to conquering our demographic mountain will not be determined by our finances alone. Our health will also determine the steepness of our climb. Keep eating those greens and keep stretching those legs.
Happy birthday to Jimmy Carter and the record numbers of Brits also celebrating their 100th birthday this year. You are pioneers.
I don’t underestimate the difficulties of creating a society that works for our ageing population, but I’m hopeful we can do just that. It won’t be easy, but as Jimmy once said, “Tremendous progress can be made if we persevere through difficult challenges.”
Alistair McQueen is head of savings and retirement at Aviva
Its so simple really, we are not sending our folk to war as often , We are not really living longer, just look at the grave stones of the 1800, just more of us are living longer health has inproved yes, but war was the biggest culling of adault people!!!